The last time back-to-back Octobers' were BELOW normal was back in the 1980's when there was a string of SEVEN straight BELOW normal Octobers' from 1980 to 1986. We recognize our responsibility to use data and technology for good. Please select one of the following: Tucson, AZ Standard Radar (low bandwidth), NOAA NCEI State Climate Summary for Arizona, 2022, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The first day of winter and the shortest day of the year, officially arrives on December 21, 2022, but that doesn't always mean that the cold temperatures and snow storms will wait until then. This month a raging jet into the Pacific Northwest, which has no blocking. The widely followed youtube weather channel, is calling for a mixed bag of weather this upcoming winter season. The February outlook for the area, issued by the Climate Prediction Center on January 31st, called for a 47% chance that temperatures would be above normal & 20% chance that temperatures would be below normal. Not all risky days will have rain/snow. May climate data across southeast Arizona. The average yearly temperature through the end of November of 72.9 ranks as the 11th warmest on record. The only significant difference between this winter's outlook and the outlook for 2020-21 is that the chance of above-normal temperature is about 5-10% less than it was last winter, likely the result of somewhat higher above-normal temperature thresholds due to the change in long-term averages described above. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 100 on the 26th to a low of 39 on the 13th. According to the Farmers' Almanac winter weather forecast for Arizona, the 2022-2023 winter season will be a milder affair this year - though drier than average, too. However there were isolated spots that recorded up to a three-quarters of an inch /0.75"/. The weather in Arizona in January is good. Rainfall amounts across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, were mostly below a half an inch (0.50") with a localized spots, especially in the foothills, recording up to nine-tenths of an inch (0.90"). On your streaming device:Download 12News+ to your streaming device. National Weather Service NWS Tucson Arizona 520 North Park Ave, Suite 304 Tucson, AZ 85719 (520) 670-6526 Comments? It begins just at the backend. The Official NOAA Winter Outlook for 2022-2023 has been released and as of right now the odds are slightly tilted towards below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for the desert. With that in mind, let's dig into the month-by-month details and follow up with some of the factors driving this forecast. For the first time since 2010, September recorded more triple digit high temperatures (8) than August did (7). This is a quite a difference from a year ago when the airport recorded 13.84" of rain through the end of October. Thanks to the new warmer 30-year climate normals, which went into effect last year, the average yearly temperature this year through the end of March is below normal although it was warmer than two years ago (56.8 vs 56.5). Two daily record temperatures were set during the month. If you're planning to visit Arizona in the near . Above-normal precipitation is forecast in part of the Ohio Valley, an area that could pick up above-normal snowfall if temperatures remain low enough. Areas from the Gulf Coast to the Southern Plains and mountain West are most favored to see above-average temperatures for the entire three-month winter period from December through February, according to an outlook released Thursday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2. Please Contact Us. At least a somewhat colder February is also possible in the Pacific Northwest, Northern California and the central Plains. The previous highest amount for October was 7 days in 1983, 2000 & 2015. Colder weather is predicted to come in between Nov. 16 and 19 and settle in for good come Nov. 24 to 27. The forecast for precipitation is a 33% chance that they will be above normal and a 33% chance that they will end up below normal. Rainfall at the Tucson International airport, the official location in Tucson, of 0.67" is 1.81" BELOW normal & ranks as the 9th driest January through April period on record. Dallas Area Storms Cause Power Transformer To Explode, Cold Or Flu? Expect a few rainy days but usually not more than 3. CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE AND SIGN-UP The states climate is varied and unique, featuring many different biomes and environments. Global emissions have grown in most years since 1900 and have accelerated over time, according to data from IEA. CLIMAS_report_2022_final.pdf Southwest Climate Outlook October 2022 Amounts ranged from 1.00" to 4.50" with localized amounts up to 6.50". Rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, varied widely across the metro area as is usually the case during the summer thunderstorm season. How do you feel about the upcoming milder, drier (especially drier than this last monsoon season, hoo boy) winter we might have? Perhaps the snow will even reach the desert lowlands! The monthly average temperature of 54.3 is almost two degrees below normal and ranks as the 59th warmest February on record. The combined two-day rainfall totals for New Year's Eve/Day across the metro area ranged from 0.50" to 1.50" with the bulk of the rain occurring on New Year's Eve. January 2022 Weather Pattern Forecast For Arizona; Opposite of December 2021, But Colder, HOT TOPIC: 2021-2022 Seasonal Weather Forecast Released For Southwestern United States; Detailed Maps and Discussion Within, December 2021 Weather Pattern Forecast Outlook For Southern California; December Arctic Blasts and Storms. Weather Forecast Office. Click Here To Join The Season Tier, Join The Main Arizona Weather Force Facebook Group (50 percent delivery time) You can join the main AZWF page as well through that group. Dry and warmer temperatures were on tap from the 17th to the 22nd. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded a trace of rain which is well below normal and ranks as the 16th driest November on record. HOT TOPIC: 2021-2022 Seasonal Weather Forecast Released For Southwestern United States; Detailed Maps and Discussion Within, November 29, 2021 While it's true that large volcanic eruptions have historically had a temporary cooling effect on earth's climate, that's not the case for the Tongan eruption. The number could've been higher as there were eight days that recorded a high of 99. As we mentioned above, one of the best things to do in Arizona in the winter is camping and/or hiking, but of course, there are more! World; United States; Arizona; Weather in Phoenix; Weather in Phoenix in November 2022. While this isn't always the case every time La Nia is present, it is representative of the average impacts. By Paul Rusnak | September 11, 2022. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts for temperature a 57% chance that they will end up above normal and a 10% chance that they will end up below normal. Some of the storms produced heavy rain, especially on the 4th, 5th, 6th & 8th. You also get the member section, which has controllable models like rain, wind, snow, in high resolution along with a GPS feature which is updated when an event is in the area No matter which part of Arizona youre from (or plan to visit), winter is a great time to arrive. The Tucson International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded 1.27" which is around a third of an inch above normal and ranks as the 37th wettest December on record. This led to isolated areas of heavy rain and flash flooding along with hail. Much of the nation's midsection, including the Mississippi Valley, northern Gulf Coast, Florida and the West Coast, should be near or slightly warmer than average in December. This is the highest wind gust, tied with August 11, 1995, to be recorded at the airport in the past 50 years. NWS Tucson Arizona520 North Park Ave, Suite 304Tucson, AZ 85719(520) 670-6526Comments? For the most part, it looks like fairly, you know, pleasant, quiet kind of weather in September and a good part of October, Geiger said. The seasonal average dew point value was 19. including sunrise/sunset and moon phases. Click on the image to the right to see how 2022 compared to the historical record. This fall, the almanac forecasted lower-than-usual temperatures across the United States, with cold temperatures taking over for good in late November. Our weather forecast can give you a great sense of what weather to expect in Arizona in January 2024. Questions? The 2022-2023 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Or rather when will it finally feel like fall? According to its forecast map, Arizona's fall theme will be cool with "decent precipitation." Peter Geiger, the editor of the Farmers' Almanac, said there wasn't much particularly interesting. The first eight days of the month were on the quiet side before turning active between the 9th and 13th thanks to deeper tropical moisture moving across the area from Hurricance Kay, which moved northwest off the Baja Coast. I hope you had a great Christmas and a Happy New Year so far. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded 0.28" which is over a half an inch below normal and ranks as the 38th driest January on record, tied with 1929. The first official astronomical day of winter arrives on Tuesday, Dec. 21. A generally colder than usual winter is expected in the northern tier of states. The arrows point to the cooler than average water in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, indicative of La Nia. Temperatures: Below Average, Arizona The monthly average temperature of 89.1 is 3.0 ABOVE normal and ranks as the 5th warmest June on record. This ranks as the 11th driest water year period (October 1st to September 30th) on record. Free Long Range Weather Forecast for Flagstaff, Arizona. According to The Farmer's Almanac, Arizona's 2021-2022 winter season will bring along a "polar coaster" with temperature swings lasting well into March of 2022. Avg Low Temps 35 to 50 Avg High Temps 15 to 25 Avg Low Temps 0 to 10 Rain Frequency 1 to 3 days Click or Tap on any day for a detailed forecast. The first five months were rather dry with the airport only recording 0.67" or 2" below normal. The best chance of a colder-than-average January will be in northern Minnesota. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 111 on the 16th to a low of 66 on the 5th. The drought classification for the area degraded to D2 (Severe Drought) during May. You can go traditional with it and check out some truly delightful Christmas towns in Arizona, or you can rent a cabin in the woods and forget about life for a while as you watch snow gently fall. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded just over a half an inch /0.53"/. October climate data across southeast Arizona. With that being said, the colder than normal temperatures are already being felt in both regions. Add the current city. Questions? The wather in Arizona in January can vary between cold and nice weather days. The monthly average temperature of 71.8 is just under four degrees above normal and ranks as the 4th warmest April on record. By weather.com meteorologists October 13, 2022 At a Glance A generally colder than usual winter is expected in the northern tier of states. 830 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023. Our Office; Monsoon; Monsoon Safety; SE Arizona drought page; . Could Arizona be in for another dry winter, leading to even worse drought conditions? According to the CPC, there is a 66% chance that La Nia conditions could last from November 2021 to January 2022. My model is showing drier than normal conditions for most of California, majorly drier than normal for Southern California than Northern. Calendar overview of Months Weather Forecast. Weather wise, is January a good time to visit Arizona? November 2022 to October 2023 Winter will be warmer than normal, with above-normal precipitation. However, January should at least be somewhat colder than usual from parts of Washington state and northern Idaho to the northern Plains, much of the Midwest and interior Northeast into northern New England. This is the 2nd most number of days during Summer on record but well behind the record of 33 days set in 2020. La Nia conditions can have varying effects on weather patterns around the world. Welcome back to the site after the holiday week. Overall, the almanac says it will be wetter than normal, the precipitation beginning in October and extending right through November. The first month of 2023 might start out a little mild on the country's eastern half, but it's expected to be stormy and very, very cold by the middle and end of the month. Sign Up for the Morning Brief - a weekday newsletter infused with your forecast, fun facts, articles and bite-sized nuggets to energize your day. The story is much different in the Catalina and Rincon mountains where between 4" and 10" of precipitation has been recorded so far this water year. It's not . Snowfall will be below normal in most areas that normally receive snow, with the snowiest periods in early to mid-January and early February. So what's in store? 3. A Strong 2024 La Nina and a new "Cold Pacific Ocean Phase" will usher in Dangerous . But there is a new ocean anomaly emerging that will also play its part. November climate data across southeast Arizona. Not all risky days will have rain/snow. Get more stories delivered right to your email. How to get these alerts with a premium subscription via e-mail by micro-climate zone AND/OR Get the GPS models for all events on your device enabled? WeatherTAB helps you plan activities on days with the least risk of rain. Questions? Dating back to 1910, every year has had a least one daily rainfall record be broken. The monthly average temperature of 54.0 is 1.0 ABOVE normal and ranks as the 25th warmest December on record, tied with 1995. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Gilbert teen's dream comes true as he takes the field, Suspected drunk driver dies after crashing into Tempe bus stop, police say, Wet weather forces SRP to release water from Bartlett Dam, La Nina is here and it's not good news for Arizona's drought, Heat-related deaths hit historic high in 2021. September climate data across southeast Arizona, Fall climate data across southeast Arizona, September records more triple digit high temperatures than August. While anything is possible, it appears a season full of mellow days and drier air is ahead, so get your sweaters. Rainfall amounts across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, were mostly below a third of an inch /0.33"/. Keep in mind this outlook is an overall three-month trend. Essentially, the formula uses sunspot activity andthe effect the moon has on the earth to be able to predict weather about two years in advance. This is because the jet stream, or storm track, stays to the north of our area, essentially making for wetter-than-normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest, but drier than normal conditions for the Desert Southwest. Every one of them ended up being cooler than a year ago. It's the 13th April with ZERO rainfall. He also said that in its more than 200 years of printing, only seven people have done the weather, with each working for about 30 or 40 years andthey have applied that sameformula. For the first time since 2004, the average Fall temperature was below normal. NOAA NCEI State Climate Summary for Arizona, 2022; Local Programs. (100 percent delivery time) account_box Log in person_add Join settings Settings Sensor Network Maps & Radar Severe Weather News & Blogs Mobile Apps Historical Weather star 36.91 N, 111.46 W Copyright 2021 Scripps Media, Inc. All rights reserved. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec December Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun 1 +68 +59 2 +68 +55 3 +61 +59 4 +64 +61 5 +66 +55 6 +66 +52 7 +64 NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a La Nia Watch on Thursday for the potential re-emergence of La Nia conditions by the fall. The forecast for precipitation is a 24% chance that they will be above normal and a 43% chance that they will end up below normal. Expect a few rainy days but usually not more than 3. Spring ended on a streak of 63 consecutive days with no rain being recorded at the International airport. Man shoots, kills victim outside of a Phoenix . Check out some of our favorite places to go camping in Arizona for inspiration. CPC forecasts, thanks to weakening La Nia conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, probabilities leaning for below normal rainfall through the Spring season then equal chances for below, near or above normal rainfall for most the remainder of the year. As is usually the case during the summer thunderstorm season rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged widely from 3.00" to 9.00" with localized amounts between 9" and 11" along the lower elevations of the Catalina and Rincon mountains. The March-April-May (MAM) 2023 temperature outlook favors below-normal. Scattered light showers and high elevation mountain snow occurred on the evening of the 23rd and the morning of the 24th were associated with a passing cold front. Rainfall amounts across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged widely from 0.10" to 0.75 ". Our forecasts are not direct predictions of rain/snow. Arctic 2022 Summer - Coldest on Record. RELATED: La Nina is here and it's not good news for Arizona's drought, The Official NOAA Winter Outlook for 2022-2023 has been released and as of right now the odds are slightly tilted towards below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for the desert southwest. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high 94 on the 3rd to a low of 43 on the 25th. Desert biome, Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument. The average yearly temperature of 60.6 is a half of a degree ABOVE normal and ranks as the 12th warmest on record, tied with 1996, through the end of April. The state's smoky skies were caused by a wildfire in Arizona, but the National Weather service said Monday's smoke and heat will be gone Tuesday. The exception is the summer thunderstorm season where the forecast for precipitation is a 36% chance that they will be above normal and a 31% chance that they will end up below normal. Southern Arizona is a mixed bag in the winter sometimes you can get a nice, mild winter or a chilly, snowy one! However, if it does rain/snow during the month, expect most of it to occur on higher risk days. The states climate is varied and unique, featuring many different biomes and environments. Every year, the Farmers Almanac, which has been printed since 1818, attempts to answer that question with weather predictions based on generations of perception, experience, and common sense, according to its website. Odds are tilted toward a colder than average winter from the Northern Plains and Great Lakes to northern New England. The average yearly temperature, through the end of October, of 74.4 is 0.9 above normal and ranks as the 7th warmest on record. In winter 2020-21, the polar vortex weakened, and even though La Nia was in place, a major cold outbreak contributed to the 19th-coldest February on record in the Lower 48. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM. As if unprecedented flash flooding during this years monsoon season wasnt enough to deal with, it looks like Arizona might get a little reprieve from extreme weather in the winter. The airport two-day total of 0.74" ranks as the 3rd wettest New Year's Eve/Day on record. Subscribe to azcentral.com today. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of . Peter Geiger, the editor of the Farmers Almanac,said there wasnt much particularly interesting or new forecasted for the area this fall, with generally fair weather from September through October. The National Weather Service in Phoenix predicts that Arizona is going to have a very wet and active monsoon season this summer, with nearly a 70% chance of precipitation expected to reach near. While the Southwest will likely escape the brunt of the onslaught of winter, we certainly arent in the clear either. Rainfall amounts were mostly between 0.25" and 0.75". #azwx #cawx https://t.co/G7FkHhFGSt. A record warm low temperature was set on the 22nd with a low of 66 breaking the record of 64 from 2016. Discover our growing collection of curated stories on Washington State. The zero rainfall recorded at the International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, marked the 30th time since 1895 that no measurable rain was recorded at the official site. Precipitation across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged from 1.75" to 4.00" with the highest totals occurring north of Tangerine Road extending east from Dove Mountain in Marana to the northern part of Oro Valley. PHOENIX (3TV/CBS 5) Look for one last, mostly sunny day before an unsettled weather pattern arrives for the next few days in Arizona.Light winds and high clouds can be expected this morning . In central Arizona, its mild and fair, and sometimes rainy. June climate data across southeast Arizona, Summer climate data across southeast Arizona. National Weather Service Wildfires send smoke as temperatures near 100 degrees. The wather in Arizona in February can vary between cold and nice weather days. Three temperature records (one high & two warm lows) were set or tied. Our weather forecast can give you a great sense of what weather to expect in Arizona in February 2024.. Officially, 7.41" of rain was recorded at the International airport which ranks, in the 128 year climatic record period (1895-2022) for Tucson, as the 13th driest year on record. . So here is the breakdown If you want to fix your roof, this is the best month to do so just in-case feb/mar/apr become active again, Southern California The Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), a well-established and innovative inter- and transdisciplinary climate research team, is looking for a Program Manager to join our team. These drought conditions developed after a drier-than-normal 2020 monsoon season and a dry 2020/2021 winter season. While its critics say its weather predictions are essentially a flip of the coin, Geiger said in general he has been told the forecasts are about 80% accurate and are especially on target when it comes to winter forecasts. The temperatures in Arizona in February are comfortable with low of 11 C and and high up to 21 C.. In a couple of words: its nice! The official start of fall is only about a month away, with the Autumn Equinox on Sept. 22. A first look at Winter 2022/2023 forecast shows an obvious influence of the third-year La Nina phase. The wather in Arizona in January can vary between cold and nice weather days. Antarctic Winter of 2022 - Coldest on Record. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded 2.82" which is just over eight-tenths of an inch above normal and ranks as the 34th wettest August on record. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded 0.23" which ranks as the 38th wettest June on record, tied with 1980. The water year is well below normal since October 1st at 2.26" which ranks as the 9th driest water year to date with three months left in the water year calendar. Combined with last years August total of 3.85", this is the first back-to-back Augusts since 2005-06 to be above normal. On average, there are 1 rainy days in Arizona during January. Climate Predictions 6-10 Days 8-14 Day Climate Probability Official 30-Day Forecast The above maps are from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Meanwhile, the Southwest and much of the Rockies are most likely to see December end up warmer than usual. This is the second consecutive October to be below normal. Winter temperatures are once again expected to be split between a warmer than average South and colder than average North, with colder risks in parts of the East. Temperature extremes ranged from a high of 105 on May 15th to a low of 33 on March 8th. One daily temperature record was set. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded only 0.19". For a more accurate weather forecast please select a city, Click on a day for an hourly weather forecast, Royal Palms Resort and Spa, part of Hyatt. Temperature extremes for Fall ranged from a high of 103 on September 6th to a low of 36 on November 26th. On your phone:Download the 12News app for the latest local breaking news straight to your phone. Get the latest articles, videos, and news about Washington State on Flipboard. Thank you! What are some fun things to do in the winter in Arizona? ajgarrison - Flickr Precipitation: Equal chances use the map provided below. Equal chances use the map provided below. The La Nia weather phenomenon is expected to extend through winter for the third year in a row, bringing below-average rain and snow and above-average temperatures. Some of our favorite winter destinations in Arizona include the adorable little town of Flagstaff, the amazing Mount Lemmon in southern Arizona (the drive up alone is incredible), and mountain towns like Payson and Prescott. Arizona Weather in Tucson Weather in Tucson in December 2022 Tucson Weather Forecast for December 2022 is based on statistical data. Temperature extremes ranged from a high of 85 on December 1st to a low of 26 on February 3rd. Editor's note: The above video aired during a previous year's forecast. On average, there are 0 snowy days in Arizona in January. Weather; Archive; Weather Widget F. Geiger said the almanac predicts snow this winter in northern Arizona between Nov. 20 and 23, and snow in higher elevation areas would continue into early December. One month remains in climatological Winter and so far it has been warmer (55.7 or +2.3) and slightly drier (1.62" or -0.18") than normal. The upcoming El-Nino phase should make problems with drought mainly in the grain and corn belt in the USA in the second half of the season in 2022 and in 2023, while the Agriculture stress index in the southern USA should be more favorable, contrary to the years 2020, 2021 and the first half of 2022. AccuWeather's winter forecast. Last winter, Boston finished the season with. The 30-year-old Musgrove is coming off the best season of his career and a stellar postseason run that included 7.0 dominant innings in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game 3 against the Mets in New York. A warmer February is also possible from the mid-Atlantic states into the rest of the Southeast, Southern Plains westward into New Mexico and eastern Arizona. There are indications that weak cutoff systems under the raging jet could bring more precipitation to Tucson than say even Phoenix, but the amount just doesnt look so high, but bears watching for that area sometime mid-month. The metro area for most of the month remained under a favorable monsoon flow pattern that brought daily round of showers and thunderstorms which produced strong gusty winds, heavy rain and flash flooding. Click on the images below for larger view. February climate data and outlook across southeast Arizona. The atmosphere's response, which ultimately matters for our weather patterns, may resemble a winter without a La Nia. (Weather station: Payson, USA). The water year rainfall is at the half-way mark with a paltry 2.03" being recorded. Click on hotel for more details. Flagstaff, AZ Winter Weather Forecast | AccuWeather Today WinterCast Hourly Daily Radar MinuteCast Monthly Air Quality Health & Activities Winter Storm Warning Snow and Ice Outlook 12 - 18. On the 6th, the 20th & 21st and the 28th & 29th. Geiger explained that the almanacs predictions come from a formula created by the first editor of the publication, who was a mathematician and an astronomer. Areas south of the storm track (much of the Southeast) will see frequent storms bringing cold rains and a wintry mix . The seasonal average temperature of 55.3 goes into the record books as the 13th warmest on record, tied with Winter 1942-1943 & last winter. 27, 2022 The posted Quail Forever forecast of a bird hatch in NM and AZ is pretty bleak with drought conditions continuing throughout the Southwest. With record to near-record heat blistering Colorado on Monday, you might think the smoke in the air is from a Colorado wildfire. During the first 16 days of the month, no below normal highs were recorded. Rainfall amounts across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, were mostly below a third of an inch (0.33") with isolated spots recording up to 1.00". PHOENIX It's a wet start to 2022 across Arizona! Rainfall at the Tucson International airport, the official location in Tucson, of 0.48" is 1.20" BELOWnormal and ranks as the 17th driest January/February period on record.